What does the future hold? There are a few satisfying perks of a job like this. None more so than the ability to be smug in the face of a prediction come true. So, as a team we have formed a mini-brains trust and come up with a few ones to watch. We knew and believed a long time ago that the tale of Paul Davidson, the inventor known as The Plumber, would come to a sticky end. It has. He's bankrupt. But this one has a few more twists and turns to come. He knows where some very large bodies are buried and is quite prepared to bring some other people down with him. We have long predicted the break up of GUS. That will happen this year. The stock market won't enjoy a major crash, but will be boosted slightly. In particular the North West quoted base will outperform the FTSE, even if at least three major regional businesses leave the main list in the course of the year. I predict that these will be Matalan, JJB and JD Sports, all from the retail sector. Sports retail is ripe for a major shake out and Dave Whelan of JJB will either succeed in his wish to take the business private, or he will accept a large, inflated offer from a private equity player. The logic of such a move would be to additionally acquire other retail assets. Don't rule out interest from the Icelandic group Baugur in JD Sports. Elsewhere in retail Wal Mart, the owners of Asda, will increase its efforts to purchase Matalan. The reason the index will outperform, however, is twofold. There will continue to be an astonishing number of new admissions to the Alternative Investment Market (AIM). However, the greatest rise in value will come from the continuing rise of United Utilities (UU); despite its intentions, UU won't demerge Vertex, nor will it sell Your Communications, because the board won't get a good enough price to satisfy its institutional shareholders who represent the very toughest in the City. But even as we look forward there are, of course, horrible things we can simply never predict. We reflect on the awful effects of the tsunami that killed so many people in countries on the Indian Ocean, it's a humbling moment for us in our relatively comfortable lives in the West. And it's a tribute to the people of the business community in this region that they are prepared to donate money, work hard and spare more than just a thought for the victims of this terrible disaster. We can't foresee a huge human tragedy like that, but we can hopefully predict that the goodwill and kindness of the human spirit will continue as the natural response to such events in the future. Michael Taylor, editor.
What does the future hold?
One of the great myths trumpeted from time to time is that Manchester, Liverpool, or even Preston, or wherever, is a media city, a creative cluster, or a centre for cultural industries. It always looks good in the brochure to promote any location with the idea that there are studio loft developments full of ironically hairstyled young designers in retro training shoes at the very cutting edge of the culture business.
There are agencies, sub-groups, initiatives and quangos that style this image further. These exist to nobly improve what the professional optimists of one such body describe as "a rich and successful heritage of creativity that has allowed it to become a major world player".
I know a major world media hub when I see it and we're not it; because we're not a net exporter of culture and creativity. Nearly all of the BBC and every other TV station in the country is in London. So is every national newspaper, except one, the headquarters of every major advertising agency and the music industry of Europe.
So what do we have? Forget regional television - Granada is all but disappearing from view now. We have regional and local papers, but which city doesn't, frankly? From 1900 to 1989 Manchester used to have a national newspaper industry, which the founder of this magazine, Bob Waterhouse, has chronicled in his excellent book The Other Fleet Street.
This can be changed by either improving what is produced regionally, much as Manchester did with music in the 1990s, or by a displacement of the bodies that underpin London's dominance, such as is being proposed by the BBC in moving large parts of the TV and radio programme-making machine to Manchester.
But we also have a chance to do something original and modern in commercial radio. Of the 19 bidders for the Manchester FM licence, there are off-the-shelf formats from the major media groups (XFM from Capital, Kerrang from EMAP and Virgin Radio, yawn, yawn, yawn). There are also a number targeting the most neglected group in the radio spectrum - cultured middle-class people in their 30s and 40s. Insider readers and their families, no less.
As a business we're taking a stake in 97.7 FM - The City, alongside Celador, the producers of Who Wants to be a Millionaire. We believe that the region deserves better media for its businesses to reach its audiences through advertising. We believe there should be better content to listen to. It could be the start of a model for radio broadcasting that also contributes to the greater community. We'd urge Insider readers to support this bid because we think it could be the start of something positive for the region. And something real for the cultural and creative industries
Michael Taylor, editor
It must seem such a good idea. Buy the business you've been running for years. Secure your future and that of your employees.
The first time the football club now known as Manchester United floundered in a swamp of debt it was 1902, and times were not as innocent as they may superficially seem.
There are people in the region who think they are influential, who aren't. There are those that don't appreciate how much power they actually have. And while the ones without power like to tell you they are doing an awful lot, the ones who really have it aren't being lead in the right direction to do
anything about it. And then there are the ones who are really powerful, they know they are powerful, but they wield their power too ruthlessly, to promote their own commercial interests.
At the Asian Business Federation (ABF) dinner held at King George's Hall Blackburn in June this year a young and dynamic business man called Tahir Mohsan, chairman of the ABF and founder of
Time Group, told the 600-strong audience that the organisation he had founded has been an excellent "role model for business integration".
Forget the waffle about integration, but hold that thought about role model for a moment. For many young people Mohsan himself has been an icon.
He built Time Computers into a £3200m-turnover business and a symbol of a bright new high-tech future for a small and important corner of the world.
Now the company has collapsed it's only right that someone who can stand in front of his community and take the applause should be subjected to a proper degree of scrutiny for his part in the downfall of the business and the effects it will have. Events in the last few years suggest that this isn't a straightforward case of a company hitting a rough patch through the retail slowdown. The signs have been there that all has not been well for some time. The administrators now have the unenviable job of unravelling the ownership of the Granville Technology Group (GTG), Time Computers, Tiny Computers and a host of other related businesses and working out who owes what to who. A week into their appointment, they are still unable to confirm who the owners of the Tiny and Time brands are, as assets of GTG.
It appears, for example, that the factory, which used to assemble computers that were sold through Time shops wasn't part of the group that has now ceased trading. That will be small comfort to the staff employed by the factory who have been made redundant and it rather begs the question why it was shut down, if all that has happened is simply that a channel to market has closed?
Mohsan says his plans to expand Time Group Middle East (TGME) in Dubai (which he set up through a Bahamian subsidiary) are still on course and won't be affected by the collapse of the business in Lancashire, which he originally set up. According to the last set of accounts for the year ending June 2003 the immediate holding company was Theta Overseas Limited in the British Virgin Isles, but the ultimate owner is Kemi Investments, based in Jersey, which the accounts state is controlled by Mohsan. We'd like to know if this has changed?
Recently, Mohsan said in a press release from TGME that it is not connected with GTG. They are separate, he has stated. This would be correct from a legal point of view but it is likely to be cold comfort for the UK Time employees facing redundancy and who see a new company in the Middle East trading with the same brand and the same people.
He's also a director of a business called p400.com, which hasn't filed any accounts, but is based in the same business park as Time and sells computers and peripherals on the internet. That'll be separate as well, presumably.
For a man so apparently fond of one kind of integration in business, Mohsan seems very keen to keep a lot of his businesses separate. And seeing as he's a director of the ABF, a group set up in Lancashire to promote and bring together Asians in business, then in the interests of being a good role model he ought to answer every question thrown at him by us, by the administrators and ultimately, hopefully, by a government inquiry t
Michael Taylor, editor
Our cover story this month demonstrates the happy side of a new economic pact with the workforce of Eastern Europe. Our writer Charlotte Dalgarno has dug out some terrific examples of a changing trend in the economy of the region that many of you will find reflects your own experiences.
The hard-working, polite, conscientious grafters from Poland, Slovakia and all other places on the other side of the former iron curtain are a welcome addition to the workforce. As all the respondents to our topical question of the month reflect on page 12, there is an overwhelmingly positive view of this new opportunity to help us run our businesses with a keen and productive workforce.
Much of this spirit of tolerance and economic flexibility builds on a fine tradition of open- mindedness and of free trade in the North West. Indeed, the unveiling of the last batch of Insider's 42 under 42 for 2005 includes a great many success stories of business people who live and prosper here as a result of the sacrifices of parents and grandparents who saw this country as a land of opportunity.
But there is a real danger that we are papering over the cracks. A report from the Forum for Private Business, an organisation representing mainly small business owners, paints a depressing picture of the skills and abilities of British school leavers and their ability to enter the world of work. Typical of the comments are the following: "They can't spell"; "Lack basic skills of reading and writing". And you can't help but draw the conclusion that the only place for many of them is a workhouse or national service. It paints an appalling picture.
Kids needs rules and structure - they also need patience. It isn't always easy, but calling for a raising in school standards also has to come with a real commitment from employers to meet the training and skills needs of kids. Let's look at the results another way: half of school leavers have either average or good personal communications skills. That's a great start. I've worked in places where you're lucky to get a grunt out of most adults.
So what do we do? There's an event coming up that will attract 30,000 kids eager to get on and find out what they might be able to do with their lives. It's called Skill City and its aims are laudable. Let's hope that it will be somewhere young kids can go and be inspired about working and creating a future for themselves.
Work, business, careers, the future, should be exciting. We can inspire and give young people something to aim for. We shouldn't have the expectation that the education system will turn out the finished article. It never has and it never will.
There's a Polish phrase that says Life is Brutal, which hopefully has been turned on its head by the new pioneers. Let's instead be positive and show our kids a better way instead of writing off a whole generation as feral hoodies
Michael Taylor, editor
p.s The Polish for welcome is witacxb4
I don't know about you, but my diary seems to have filled up with events to go to every Thursday from here to Christmas. And a few Fridays too. Then there are a fair number of breakfast events, power lunches and a smattering of invitations to corporate seats at some high-profile sporting events, concerts and theatre performances. I can't go to everything and I don't have the stamina to go to as many as I'd like. It's equally important that the rest of the team at Insider gets out in the world and meets as many people as possible. It helps us to do our jobs better. Only by meeting business people, keeping a finger on the pulse of the region and trying to find new stories can we make the magazine better value for our readers. But that's equally true for anyone in business. The art of good business is being a good middleman, putting people together. That's what the perfect event should be all about. It should seek to provide a setting in which people can meet, be entertained, but above all be respected for who they are and what they want to achieve on a business night out. I don't particularly like the word "networking" but the more you can offer, the better. Bad nights out, really rotten events where things fall apart often do so because someone, somewhere forgets to keep it simple. Sponsors, paying guests and busy people who are giving up time in their lives deserve the very best. The road to chaos is littered with good intentions and invitations to people off the telly who don't know their audience. I say this from personal experience. The saving grace from the worst event I've ever been involved in - when Wayne Hemingway insulted an audience of Liverpool property people - was worse on the night because everyone was there. But I'd rather have that than attract a business D list. You'll notice in the magazine this month a number of stories that revolve around some of our own events. We hosted a lunch at the wonderful Lowry Hotel in which Kevin Roberts, chief executive of Saatchi and Saatchi Worldwide, came back to the North West to wow our specially invited audience (see page 24). What made that day so special wasn't just Kevin's awesome performance, but the buzz around the room. And at our property event at the City of Manchester stadium (see page 57), not only did Sir Howard Bernstein provide a useful snapshot of civic thinking, but our sponsors and guests had a great chance to make new acquaintances. I love meeting our readers and I'm thrilled that our readers like meeting each other. We have a highly professional, extremely thorough events team, who I adore. And I would love you all to come and see what we do. We're bringing our Economic Forum format to Liverpool and Penrith before the end of the year. And we're going to be hosting a Retail Economic Forum event at Harvey Nichols on 9 November. These are places where we discuss ideas and help you to meet more people and make more money. See you soon? Michael Taylor, editor.
In a unique experiment in business analysis Insider assembled a powerful panel of advisers to put Lancashire based property business Hurstwood Group under serious startegic scrutiny. PLUS Merseyside review and exclusive interview with Peter Marks of United Co-operatives.
It's the end of the year and North West Business Insider staff writer Neil Tague reflects on a roller coaster year of corporate takeovers, political infighting and superb business marketing on the back of sporting success.
