Cheltenham could lose out to neighbour Gloucester over flagship arts campus, but both are planning a development-led revival. David Thame reports.
The two towns could hardly be more different, yet Cheltenham and Gloucester seem destined to be twinned.
The eponymous former building society, and just seven miles of motorway, are merely the most obvious links in a shared 1,000-year history that has left both feeling just a little bit prickly.
And now the latest news - that the University of Gloucestershire plans to move its arts, media and communication faculty from Cheltenham to Gloucester - has done nothing to take the needle out of the twin towns' relationship.
The University of Gloucestershire says it wants to increase its student numbers by two-thirds - from 9,000 to 15,000 - by 2012. The plan, unveiled in January 2008, includes new courses in the performing arts, drama, dance and music. But it also means shifting the arts, media and communications faculty from its historic base in Cheltenham to a brand-new campus in the centre of Gloucester.
For Gloucester a new student campus is a chance to revitalise a city that has struggled to cope with the demise of its industrial base. But for Cheltenham the move could be the start of a dangerous slide into obsolescence.
Whether or not the university's plans for Gloucester's Blackfriars site come to pass - and they have many hurdles to overcome yet - it is at least one sign that the city is beginning to pull itself together.
Chris Foley, head of regeneration at the South West Regional Development Agency, says it took ten years of booming UK property prices before Gloucester began to feel the warming effects.
The M5 motorway - which should have been Gloucester's road to riches - simply became a huge Gloucester by-pass. And the Severn crossings meant that east-west traffic didn't need to pass close by Gloucester either.
"The process of reviving Gloucester has started, but it comes from a low base. The city has suffered over a long period, losing out to Bristol and to Birmingham, and the M5 and the Severn Bridge hit the city's importance as a hub through which people had to pass. Gloucester has been in a long slow decline," says Foley.
They key to a revival will be clever use of Gloucester"s undoubted historic legacy of buildings and associations.
"We'll use the historic environment to lever Gloucester into the modern economy. There's no reason why it shouldn't be any different from other historic cities like Canterbury, York or Winchester. We need to open historic buildings and sites up and to promote them," says Foley.
And the regeneration head rejects suggestions that a tourism-based economy is inherently unstable and produces low-value jobs.
"Its about using an environment that currently goes unnoticed and making a place people will be comfortable living and working in - people don't like soulless Anytowns. We need to use Gloucester's advantages to create a place that you can sense and that is comfortable," he says.
"Regeneration is already happening - look at the cranes over the city. In the past, funding for some projects was never quite enough - costs continued to rise ahead of budgets - but now things like Blackfriars can go ahead, we've put some money in, and likewise we've invested in the bridges and canals to ensure we have a good quality of design."
Gloucester's SWRDA-backed urban regeneration company has half-a-dozen substantial redevelopment proposals on the table currently. The Kings Quarter Urban Initiatives, where 300,000 sq ft of new retailing space is proposed, is proceeding with backing from landlords Thornley Properties and Morley. A design competition for the scheme was launched earlier in 2008.
Another 1.6m sq ft of retail-led development is also planned by Peel Holdings and British Waterways for the Gloucester Quays site, and yet more retail is possible at Gloucester Docks (a modest 16,000 sq ft) and at Blackfriars. Plenty of new office space is planned, too.
But one of the largest and most ambitious projects - and a key test of Gloucester's capacity to support substantial new development - comes at the city's railway triangle site.
In February 2008 property adviser GVA Grimley was appointed to draw up a masterplan for what is a prominent, if for the time being extremely unattractive, site.
Around 80 acres could be developed at the former rail maintenance site, which is located adjacent to Metz Way and off Eastern Avenue and one of the main gateways into Gloucester. Early thoughts point to housing, offices and a hotel. The appointment follows a submission by developer LXB properties who are behind plans for a mixed-use scheme on a 20-acre slice of the site.
Chris Oldershaw, chief executive of Gloucester Heritage, says: "Our vision is for a comprehensive redevelopment that is fully integrated into the city centre, railway station hospital and surrounding communities."
GVA is due to report its conclusions by July 2008, but according to Gordon Isgrove, director at GVA Grimley and the man in charge of the project, there are both huge obstacles and enormous potential paybacks.
"This is a very challenging site, which is probably why it has lain undeveloped for so long," he says. "However, there is huge potential here for a new and exciting city environment and we are looking forward to working with Nash Partnerships and our other partners to set out a detailed plan which will bring this area back to life."
"Not all of the site is developable - its mostly derelict and the city turns it back on this area largely because its inaccessible. But its very visible from the trains and roads - it is an eyesore, and this city needs some new high-quality development and we need to develop for the city a very strong gateway."
Mixed development with residential and commercial uses - with offices to the fore - is likely to dominate the completed masterplan.
Indeed, offices and retail dominate the list of schemes - the so-called Magnificent Seven - which complete Gloucester Heritage's £31bn vision.
The ten-year strategy could mean a little short of 600,000 sq ft of office space in the Gloucester Heritage area, which includes 250 acres of derelict, but often well-located, land.
Gloucester Docks will see much of the new office space and hopes are already high that the Southgate Moorings can attract a pre-let. The name of the Ecclesiastical Insurance Group, whose 100,000 sq ft requirement has been dangled in front of landlords and developers for some time, is frequently linked with the site.
Even though Gloucester's days as a major industrial centre are now largely over, its motorway location still makes it attractive to distributors. Last month St Modwen signed up hauliers CM Downton for a 102,000 sq ft distribution warehouse at the city's Quedgeley West Business Park, close to junction 12 of the M5 motorway. It was the second large warehouse deal at the 32-acre park, coming 18 months after a 96,000 sq ft prelet to Prestoplan.
Added to this, St Modwen are hoping for still more: a speculative 120,000 sq ft warehouse is due for completion in November 2008 and another eight acres remain for further development.
St Modwen were advised on the latest deal by Ash & Co and DTZ.
Rob Skelston, senior development manager for St Modwen, says: "Quedgeley West continues to attract mid- to large-scale occupier interest given the site's excellent prominence to the A38 and proximity to the M5."
Regeneration bosses concede that getting Gloucester's economy back to where it once was will take years if not decades. But 2008 will see the first substantial steps down that long road.